| Vol. X, No. 4 | Editor: Robert Giedt | June 2000 |
One interesting side-effect of Prop 198 (the blanket primary initiative) is that we can gain some insight into party affinity by examining the crossover vote in the March 2000 primary election (not previously possible, but now reported). Contrary to an oft-stated assumption, Republicans were only thefourth largest group (17% of our Presidential vote total) to cast their votes for Libertarians, following Libertarians themselves (37% of the total), Democrats (23%), and voters who Decline to State a party affiliation (19%).
Republicans were loathe to cast crossover votes in any other party (only 8% did), but this is probably because their own primary (Bush vs. McCain) was the most exciting this year. (In fact, more Libertarians voted in the Republican primary than in our own--true of most other parties' voters as well!)
Libertarians were more likely to vote in their own primary (33%), however, than all small parties' voters save the Greens. Only 5.8% of Reform Party voters voted in their own primary (a 5-way race, like ours), revealing only minimal loyalty among that party's registrants.
In contrast, 9.5% of the Natural Law Party's voters voted in their party's primary--and it was uncontested! Cf. only 3.1% of the American Independent Party's voters did the same for their single candidate. Commentators have long suggested that most people in the AIP are registered in that party by accident (because of the name 'Independent').
So whom should Libertarians recruit? Clearly, (of current voters) the big numbers can only come from the big blocs: Democrats, Decline-to-States, and Republicans. The other parties are not just small, but they lack a mitigating propensity to cross over our way. Relative to their numbers, however, Reform Party members were the most likely to vote for a Libertarian, followed closely by Natural Law, Decline to State, and AIP. Greens were less than half as likely as those parties' registrants, and Republicans and Democrats were half as likely as the Greens to do so.
Are these numbers statistically significant? Not really. It's kind of like judging the popularity of motion pictures by counting the people who switch screens in a multiplex after the features have started. They probably tell you something, but I'm not sure what!
| Libertarian | Democrat | Republican | AIP | Greens | Natural Law | Reform | decline to state | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Browne | 8852 | 4245 | 3528 | 385 | 110 | 37 | 236 | 3432 | 20825 |
| Dave Lynn Hollist | 781 | 585 | 414 | 70 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 599 | 2487 |
| L. Neil Smith | 1080 | 776 | 474 | 91 | 18 | 8 | 28 | 690 | 3165 |
| Larry Hines | 927 | 749 | 521 | 75 | 17 | 12 | 23 | 660 | 2984 |
| Kip Lee | 717 | 1447 | 708 | 101 | 23 | 15 | 20 | 978 | 4009 |
| Total | 12357 | 7802 | 5645 | 722 | 178 | 79 | 328 | 6359 | 33470 |
Interested in the idea of a monthly supper club or café club where politics, political issues, political philosophy are discussed (with a libertarian bent, of course)? I'm kicking around several ideas and am looking for partners to help me define, organize, launch, and run a monthly get together.
If you are interested please call J.R. Prohaska at 650/323-2808. For some interesting background on some of my thoughts point your favorite web browser at the following article:
http://www.britannica.com/bcom/original/article/0,5744,4999,00.html
Watch this newsletter for the latest information!
As Publisher, I'd like to apologize for the late mailing of the May newsletter. Two different contingency plans for getting the printing done while I was out of town fell through, and my hours were stretched too thin when I was in town. Please remember that the newsletter is produced entirely by volunteers, and sometimes, well, delay happens!
As a consequence of the lack of notice, May's meeting was not a formal central committee meeting, and the business scheduled for that meeting will be taken up at the June meeting, if still appropriate. (Note: the initiative to change county supervisor elections to district elections (previously submitted for our consideration) has since been withdrawn.)
As it turned out, we had some potentially contentious executive committee business to take care of in May anyway.
Spurred by a dispute concerning Jack's eligibility to serve as an LPSM delegate to the LPC convention back in February (and consequently as an LPC delegate to the upcoming LNC (Libertarian National Committee) convention in July), an LPC officer from outside our region had asked the LPSM to examine the question of Jack's eligibility to be elected LPSM Chair last January. (Regional Chairs are delegates to the LPC convention ex officio.) Although technical opinions varied on that question, and on the related procedural issues, no action was taken, since no one saw any compelling benefit to the LPSM. (Jack's eligibility to serve as Chair today is unambiguous, following his election to the central committee at the March primary. Previously, he was an appointee.)
Bob reported that the Independent picked up his press release announcing our officers elected at the Annual Meeting. Jack reported that theIndependent honored him by inviting submission of guest editorials for future issues. Congratulations, Jack! To date, two of his columns have appeared in their Peninsula publications.
Linden Hsu was appointed to serve as Vice Chair by a unanimous vote of
7--0--0. Welcome aboard, Linden!
Bob suggested that this newsletter might poll readers on issues of the day to promote more community. Someone replied that the web is better suited to polling, and I responded that maybe we should switch our mailing lists from listbot.com to egroups.com (which supports polling and other features not available on listbot.com). I'll be polling list subscribers to determine their interest level.
At the June central committee meeting, we will conduct elections to fill some vacant offices. (Three officers are presently serving as appointees of the executive committee, on an interim basis.) We may also entertain motions to formally endorse or dis PAVE2000; Tim Draper's competing "voucher" initiative; Quackenbush's recall; and the Prop 26 re-run getting the fast-track from government insiders.
| All California Counties | San Mateo County | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposition | Yes | No | Y% | N% | A% | Yes | No | Y% | N% | A% | ||
| 1A | Tribal Gaming | Pass | 4,654,597 | 2,565,221 | 60.4% | 33.3% | 6.3% | 106,555 | 64,415 | 58.8% | 35.6% | 5.6% |
| 12 | Parks and Water | Pass | 4,560,462 | 2,653,657 | 59.2% | 34.4% | 6.4% | 122,777 | 48,004 | 67.8% | 26.5% | 5.7% |
| 13 | Drinking Water | Pass | 4,645,741 | 2,520,850 | 60.3% | 32.7% | 7.0% | 124,588 | 44,913 | 68.8% | 24.8% | 6.5% |
| 14 | Library Construction | Pass | 4,204,655 | 2,922,529 | 54.6% | 37.9% | 7.5% | 112,218 | 55,708 | 61.9% | 30.7% | 7.3% |
| 15 | Crime Labs | fail | 3,198,011 | 3,680,569 | 41.5% | 47.8% | 10.7% | 83,679 | 76,554 | 46.2% | 42.3% | 11.6% |
| 16 | Veteran's Homes | Pass | 4,305,415 | 2,602,552 | 55.9% | 33.8% | 10.3% | 106,697 | 55,391 | 58.9% | 30.6% | 10.5% |
| 17 | Lotteries and Raffles | Pass | 4,016,555 | 2,833,443 | 52.1% | 36.8% | 11.1% | 108,535 | 55,050 | 59.9% | 30.4% | 9.7% |
| 18 | Murder | Pass | 4,989,171 | 1,898,334 | 64.8% | 24.6% | 10.6% | 104,805 | 54,535 | 57.8% | 30.1% | 12.1% |
| 19 | Peace Officers | Pass | 5,006,024 | 1,802,482 | 65.0% | 23.4% | 11.6% | 119,248 | 41,278 | 65.8% | 22.8% | 11.4% |
| 20 | State Lottery | Pass | 3,631,748 | 3,229,887 | 47.1% | 41.9% | 10.9% | 93,843 | 68,773 | 51.8% | 38.0% | 10.3% |
| 21 | Juvenile Crime | Pass | 4,384,260 | 2,685,659 | 56.9% | 34.9% | 8.2% | 74,598 | 89,845 | 41.2% | 49.6% | 9.2% |
| 22 | Limit on Marriage | Pass | 4,506,301 | 2,851,897 | 58.5% | 37.0% | 4.5% | 88,062 | 85,811 | 48.6% | 47.4% | 4.0% |
| 23 | None of the Above | fail | 2,301,276 | 4,041,086 | 29.9% | 52.5% | 17.7% | 61,902 | 89,140 | 34.2% | 49.2% | 16.6% |
| 25 | Campaign Finance | fail | 2,389,361 | 4,486,095 | 31.0% | 58.2% | 10.8% | 59,670 | 101,432 | 32.9% | 56.0% | 11.1% |
| 26 | Local Majority Vote | fail | 3,440,636 | 3,621,699 | 44.7% | 47.0% | 8.3% | 89,974 | 78,312 | 49.7% | 43.2% | 7.1% |
| 27 | Congressional Term Limits | fail | 2,675,210 | 3,940,862 | 34.7% | 51.1% | 14.1% | 65,691 | 88,395 | 36.3% | 48.8% | 15.0% |
| 28 | Repeal Tobacco Tax | fail | 1,971,323 | 5,112,281 | 25.6% | 66.4% | 8.1% | 36,308 | 131,855 | 20.0% | 72.8% | 7.2% |
| 29 | Indian Gaming | Pass | 3,571,112 | 3,162,041 | 46.4% | 41.0% | 12.6% | 79,275 | 78,176 | 43.8% | 43.1% | 13.1% |
| 30 | Insurance Lawsuits | fail | 2,186,350 | 4,737,402 | 28.4% | 61.5% | 10.1% | 74,107 | 88,254 | 40.9% | 48.7% | 10.4% |
| 31 | Insurance Amendments | fail | 1,937,854 | 4,877,740 | 25.2% | 63.3% | 11.5% | 60,644 | 98,725 | 33.5% | 54.5% | 12.0% |
Tuesdays, June 13; July 11
Hobee's Restaurant
(Directions to Hobee's)
1111
Shoreway Road, Belmont; just off Ralston, on the bay side of Highway 101
Dinner
and informal discussion: 6:00--7:30pm in the reserved dining room
Business meeting: 7:30--8:45pm in the dining room alcove.